MIN
WAS
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Wizards -2.2.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 9 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · WAS n/a | MIN 71% · WAS 29% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -243 · WAS +243 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 113, Timberwolves 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 24 and Wizards by 9.
Side by side
| MIN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | MIN 141 @ WAS 115 | MIN |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | WAS 109 @ MIN 120 | MIN |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | WAS 105 @ MIN 103 | WAS |
| 2025-01-13 | 2024-25 | MIN 120 @ WAS 106 | MIN |
| 2024-04-09 | 2023-24 | WAS 121 @ MIN 130 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works