NOP
ATL
New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Pelicans -2.2.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,310 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 11 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.8 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · ATL n/a | NOP 33% · ATL 67% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +202 · ATL -202 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 122, Pelicans 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 11 and Hawks by 22.
Side by side
| NOP | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-3 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | NOP 100 @ ATL 117 | ATL |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | ATL 115 @ NOP 98 | ATL |
| 2024-12-02 | 2024-25 | NOP 112 @ ATL 124 | ATL |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024-25 | ATL 126 @ NOP 111 | ATL |
| 2024-03-10 | 2023-24 | NOP 116 @ ATL 103 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works