NOP
BKN
New Orleans Pelicans @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Nets -9.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Nets 29th (15.8).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pelicans 21st (-4.2), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 15 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.8 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · BKN n/a | NOP 55% · BKN 46% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP -120 · BKN +120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 117, Pelicans 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 18 and Nets by 15.
Side by side
| NOP | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-4 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | BKN 113 @ NOP 116 | NOP |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | NOP 101 @ BKN 119 | BKN |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | NOP 114 @ BKN 119 | BKN |
| 2024-11-11 | 2024-25 | BKN 107 @ NOP 105 | BKN |
| 2024-03-19 | 2023-24 | NOP 104 @ BKN 91 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works