NOP
BOS
New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Pelicans -2.2.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,660 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -8.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · BOS n/a | NOP 27% · BOS 73% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +275 · BOS -275 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 120, Pelicans 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 9 and Celtics by 24.
Side by side
| NOP | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ BOS 144 | BOS |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | BOS 122 @ NOP 90 | BOS |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | BOS 118 @ NOP 116 | BOS |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | NOP 119 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
| 2024-03-30 | 2023-24 | BOS 104 @ NOP 92 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works