NOP
CHA
New Orleans Pelicans @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 6,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,950 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 13 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Hornets 20th (0.20).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pelicans 18th (14.1), Hornets 28th (12.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · CHA n/a | NOP 40% · CHA 60% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +153 · CHA -153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 116, Pelicans 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 13 and Hornets by 20.
Side by side
| NOP | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | NOP 95 @ CHA 102 | CHA |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-26 | CHA 112 @ NOP 116 | NOP |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | CHA 94 @ NOP 98 | NOP |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | NOP 92 @ CHA 123 | CHA |
| 2024-01-17 | 2023-24 | CHA 112 @ NOP 132 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works