NOP
CHI
New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Bulls 26th (23.4%).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 243.4 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · CHI n/a | NOP 55% · CHI 45% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP -121 · CHI +121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 121, Pelicans 123.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 18 and Bulls by 15.
Side by side
| NOP | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ CHI 134 | CHI |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | NOP 114 @ CHI 104 | NOP |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | CHI 130 @ NOP 143 | NOP |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | NOP 119 @ CHI 113 | NOP |
| 2024-10-23 | 2024-25 | CHI 111 @ NOP 123 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works