NOP
CLE
New Orleans Pelicans @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,470 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 11 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.3 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · CLE n/a | NOP 35% · CLE 65% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +188 · CLE -188 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 121, Pelicans 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 11 and Cavaliers by 22.
Side by side
| NOP | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | CLE 111 @ NOP 106 | CLE |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ CLE 141 | CLE |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | NOP 100 @ CLE 128 | CLE |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | CLE 131 @ NOP 122 | CLE |
| 2024-03-13 | 2023-24 | CLE 116 @ NOP 95 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works