NOP
DAL
New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.2 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · DAL n/a | NOP 37% · DAL 63% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +172 · DAL -172 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 121, Pelicans 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 12 and Mavericks by 21.
Side by side
| NOP | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ NOP 129 | NOP |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | DAL 113 @ NOP 119 | NOP |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | NOP 115 @ DAL 118 | DAL |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | NOP 101 @ DAL 99 | NOP |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | NOP 103 @ DAL 111 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works