NOP

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

65% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

NOP 35%DEN 65%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,480 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 11 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pelicans 18th (14.1), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -5
Total points	n/a	235.5
Win chance	NOP n/a · DEN n/a	NOP 35% · DEN 65%
Fair moneyline		NOP +187 · DEN -187

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 121, Pelicans 115.
80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 11 and Nuggets by 22.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

NOP		DEN
1-4	Record	2-2
-4.2 21	Net rating	+4.1 7
111.2 18	Offensive rating	118.2 1
115.4 23	Defensive rating	114.1 21
52.8% 26	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
55.5% 23	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
13.8 10	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
26.7% 9	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
34.4% 25	3-point %	38.8% 1
104.1 8	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-28	2026-27	DEN 104 @ NOP 91	DEN
2026-10-24	2026-27	NOP 135 @ DEN 141	DEN
2026-01-13	2025-26	DEN 122 @ NOP 116	DEN
2025-11-19	2025-26	DEN 125 @ NOP 118	DEN
2025-10-29	2025-26	NOP 88 @ DEN 122	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

NOP

Zion Williamson F

21.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast in 29.9 min, 60% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

NOP

Trey Murphy III F

21 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.7 ast in 35.3 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

NOP

Dejounte Murray G

16.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.3 ast in 28.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Pelicans 104-91 on the road (2026-10-28). The difference: they shot 54% effective field goal percentage to 46% and they made 12 threes to 7, a 15-point swing.