NOP
DET
New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Pelicans -2.2.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -9.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.9 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · DET n/a | NOP 25% · DET 75% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +302 · DET -302 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 119, Pelicans 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 8 and Pistons by 26.
Side by side
| NOP | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 2025-26 | NOP 108 @ DET 129 | DET |
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | DET 112 @ NOP 104 | DET |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | NOP 130 @ DET 136 | DET |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | DET 127 @ NOP 81 | DET |
| 2024-03-24 | 2023-24 | NOP 114 @ DET 101 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works