NOP
GSW
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,880 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.6 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · GSW n/a | NOP 39% · GSW 61% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +158 · GSW -158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 120, Pelicans 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 13 and Warriors by 21.
Side by side
| NOP | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | GSW 109 @ NOP 113 | NOP |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | NOP 96 @ GSW 104 | GSW |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | GSW 124 @ NOP 106 | GSW |
| 2025-03-28 | 2024-25 | GSW 111 @ NOP 95 | GSW |
| 2024-11-22 | 2024-25 | GSW 112 @ NOP 108 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works