NOP
HOU
New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 1,950 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 6 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Rockets 18th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -10.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.2 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · HOU n/a | NOP 20% · HOU 80% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +412 · HOU -412 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 122, Pelicans 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 6 and Rockets by 27.
Side by side
| NOP | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | HOU 134 @ NOP 102 | HOU |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | NOP 105 @ HOU 107 | HOU |
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | NOP 110 @ HOU 119 | HOU |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | HOU 128 @ NOP 133 | NOP |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | NOP 117 @ HOU 146 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works