NOP
IND
New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 5,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- History: the Pacers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Relative strength: the Pacers rank 12th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- The Pelicans' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Pacers 23rd (0.20).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.5 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · IND n/a | NOP 46% · IND 54% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +116 · IND -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 119, Pelicans 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 15 and Pacers by 18.
Side by side
| NOP | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | IND 123 @ NOP 120 | IND |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | NOP 119 @ IND 127 | IND |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | IND 109 @ NOP 128 | NOP |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024-25 | NOP 104 @ IND 119 | IND |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-25 | NOP 110 @ IND 114 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works