NOP
LAC
New Orleans Pelicans @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 231 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · LAC n/a | NOP 36% · LAC 64% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +182 · LAC -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 118, Pelicans 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 12 and Clippers by 21.
Side by side
| NOP | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | LAC 99 @ NOP 105 | NOP |
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | LAC 109 @ NOP 124 | NOP |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | NOP 117 @ LAC 137 | LAC |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | NOP 124 @ LAC 126 | LAC |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | NOP 98 @ LAC 114 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works