NOP
LAL
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Pelicans -2.2.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,670 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 8 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.9 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · LAL n/a | NOP 27% · LAL 73% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +274 · LAL -274 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 122, Pelicans 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 8 and Lakers by 24.
Side by side
| NOP | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | NOP 101 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | LAL 111 @ NOP 103 | LAL |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | NOP 121 @ LAL 133 | LAL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | LAL 118 @ NOP 104 | LAL |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | NOP 108 @ LAL 124 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works