NOP
MEM
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.1 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,460 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Grizzlies 18th (14.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Grizzlies 19th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 235 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · MEM n/a | NOP 35% · MEM 65% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +189 · MEM -189 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 120, Pelicans 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 12 and Grizzlies by 21.
Side by side
| NOP | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | MEM 106 @ NOP 114 | NOP |
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | NOP 133 @ MEM 127 | NOP |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | MEM 133 @ NOP 128 | MEM |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | NOP 122 @ MEM 128 | MEM |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | MEM 107 @ NOP 104 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works