NOP
MIA
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 14 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Heat 16th (0.21).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Heat 16th (25.2%).
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 240.5 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · MIA n/a | NOP 42% · MIA 58% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +138 · MIA -138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 122, Pelicans 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 14 and Heat by 19.
Side by side
| NOP | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | MIA 123 @ NOP 111 | MIA |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | NOP 106 @ MIA 125 | MIA |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | MIA 153 @ NOP 104 | MIA |
| 2025-01-01 | 2024-25 | NOP 108 @ MIA 119 | MIA |
| 2024-03-22 | 2023-24 | NOP 111 @ MIA 88 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works