NOP
MIL
New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
- The Pelicans' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,590 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Pelicans 25th (34.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.9 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · MIL n/a | NOP 54% · MIL 46% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP -118 · MIL +118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 117, Pelicans 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 18 and Bucks by 15.
Side by side
| NOP | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | MIL 139 @ NOP 118 | MIL |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | NOP 137 @ MIL 141 | MIL |
| 2025-04-10 | 2024-25 | NOP 111 @ MIL 136 | MIL |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | MIL 111 @ NOP 107 | MIL |
| 2024-03-28 | 2023-24 | MIL 100 @ NOP 107 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works