NOP
MIN
New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 8 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.6 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · MIN n/a | NOP 25% · MIN 75% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +302 · MIN -302 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 122, Pelicans 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 8 and Timberwolves by 25.
Side by side
| NOP | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | NOP 126 @ MIN 132 | MIN |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | NOP 119 @ MIN 115 | NOP |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | MIN 125 @ NOP 116 | MIN |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | MIN 149 @ NOP 142 | MIN |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | NOP 93 @ MIN 134 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works