NOP
NYK
New Orleans Pelicans @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 7,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,710 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · NYK n/a | NOP 27% · NYK 73% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +269 · NYK -269 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 119, Pelicans 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 9 and Knicks by 25.
Side by side
| NOP | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | NOP 116 @ NYK 121 | NYK |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | NYK 130 @ NOP 125 | NYK |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024-25 | NYK 104 @ NOP 93 | NYK |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024-25 | NOP 85 @ NYK 118 | NYK |
| 2024-02-27 | 2023-24 | NOP 115 @ NYK 92 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works