NOP
OKC
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,450 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Thunder 14th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.4 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · OKC n/a | NOP 24% · OKC 76% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +309 · OKC -309 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 120, Pelicans 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 8 and Thunder by 26.
Side by side
| NOP | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | 2025-26 | NOP 95 @ OKC 104 | OKC |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | OKC 126 @ NOP 109 | OKC |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | NOP 106 @ OKC 137 | OKC |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | OKC 115 @ NOP 100 | OKC |
| 2025-02-10 | 2024-25 | NOP 101 @ OKC 137 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works