NOP
ORL
New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- History: the Magic won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Strength: the Magic rank 1st of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.25).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Magic -12.5.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.5 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · ORL n/a | NOP 43% · ORL 57% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +132 · ORL -132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 119, Pelicans 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 14 and Magic by 19.
Side by side
| NOP | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | ORL 112 @ NOP 108 | ORL |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ ORL 128 | ORL |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | ORL 113 @ NOP 93 | ORL |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | NOP 88 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | ORL 117 @ NOP 108 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works