NOP
PHX
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Pelicans 18th (14.1).
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Pelicans 25th (34.4%).
- The Suns' offense (111.8 points per 100 possessions, 17th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Suns -14.3.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Suns 28th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 14 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Suns 19th (14.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.2 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · PHX n/a | NOP 43% · PHX 57% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +135 · PHX -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 118, Pelicans 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 14 and Suns by 19.
Side by side
| NOP | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-2 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | NOP 116 @ PHX 118 | PHX |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | PHX 123 @ NOP 114 | PHX |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | PHX 115 @ NOP 108 | PHX |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | NOP 98 @ PHX 121 | PHX |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | NOP 108 @ PHX 125 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works