NOP
POR
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,350 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.9 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · POR n/a | NOP 34% · POR 66% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +198 · POR -198 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 121, Pelicans 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 11 and Trail Blazers by 22.
Side by side
| NOP | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | NOP 106 @ POR 118 | POR |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | POR 122 @ NOP 109 | POR |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-26 | POR 120 @ NOP 143 | NOP |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | POR 125 @ NOP 117 | POR |
| 2025-01-08 | 2024-25 | POR 119 @ NOP 100 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works