NOP
SAC
New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Kings -16.6.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pelicans 21st (-4.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Pelicans cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.7 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · SAC n/a | NOP 62% · SAC 38% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP -161 · SAC +161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 117, Pelicans 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 20 and Kings by 13.
Side by side
| NOP | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-5 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-27 | SAC 120 @ NOP 132 | NOP |
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | NOP 113 @ SAC 117 | SAC |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | NOP 133 @ SAC 123 | NOP |
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | SAC 94 @ NOP 120 | NOP |
| 2025-02-13 | 2024-25 | SAC 133 @ NOP 140 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works