NOP
SAS
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,160 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pelicans 18th (14.1), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · SAS n/a | NOP 22% · SAS 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +363 · SAS -363 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 122, Pelicans 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 7 and Spurs by 27.
Side by side
| NOP | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | NOP 104 @ SAS 95 | NOP |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-26 | SAS 135 @ NOP 132 | SAS |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | NOP 119 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | SAS 120 @ NOP 116 | SAS |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | NOP 115 @ SAS 119 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works