NOP
TOR
New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Pelicans -2.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 10 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Raptors 17th (0.21).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.3 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · TOR n/a | NOP 28% · TOR 72% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP +253 · TOR -253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 120, Pelicans 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 10 and Raptors by 24.
Side by side
| NOP | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | NOP 106 @ TOR 119 | TOR |
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | TOR 111 @ NOP 122 | NOP |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | NOP 104 @ TOR 113 | TOR |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | TOR 119 @ NOP 93 | TOR |
| 2024-03-05 | 2023-24 | NOP 139 @ TOR 98 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works