NOP
UTA
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- The Pelicans' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pelicans 21st (-4.2), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Jazz 21st (14.8).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 26th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.2 |
| Win chance | NOP n/a · UTA n/a | NOP 51% · UTA 49% |
| Fair moneyline | NOP -105 · UTA +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 120, Pelicans 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Pelicans by 17 and Jazz by 16.
Side by side
| NOP | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.2 21 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 111.2 18 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 115.4 23 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 52.8% 26 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.5% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 13.8 10 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 26.7% 9 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 34.4% 25 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 104.1 8 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | NOP 119 @ UTA 120 | UTA |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | UTA 137 @ NOP 156 | NOP |
| 2026-02-28 | 2025-26 | NOP 115 @ UTA 105 | NOP |
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | NOP 129 @ UTA 118 | NOP |
| 2025-03-02 | 2024-25 | NOP 128 @ UTA 121 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works