NYK

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

NYK 52%ATL 48%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Simulation: the Knicks win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Hawks 14th (+1.3).

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 16 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Knicks 15th (14.3).
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -0.5
Total points	n/a	227.2
Win chance	NYK n/a · ATL n/a	NYK 52% · ATL 48%
Fair moneyline		NYK -109 · ATL +109

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 114, Knicks 114.
80% of simulations land between Knicks by 17 and Hawks by 16.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

NYK		ATL
2-3	Record	3-3
+7.6 3	Net rating	+1.2 14
116.4 3	Offensive rating	112.5 14
108.7 4	Defensive rating	111.3 11
55.6% 5	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
53.3% 7	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
13.7 9	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
29.3% 5	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
37.5% 3	3-point %	36.7% 7
99.8 28	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-30	Playoffs	NYK 140 @ ATL 89	NYK
2026-04-28	Playoffs	ATL 97 @ NYK 126	NYK
2026-04-25	Playoffs	NYK 114 @ ATL 98	NYK
2026-04-23	Playoffs	NYK 108 @ ATL 109	ATL
2026-04-20	Playoffs	ATL 107 @ NYK 106	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Knicks beat the Hawks 140-89 on the road (East 1st Round - Game 6). The difference: they shot 66% effective field goal percentage to 43% and they committed 9 fewer turnovers (10 to 19). OG Anunoby led the Knicks with 29 points.