NYK
BOS
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Knicks +0.2.
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Knicks 9th (13.7).
- Strength: the Celtics rank 1st of 30 in points allowed per game (107.1).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 15 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Knicks 15th (14.3), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.4 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · BOS n/a | NYK 45% · BOS 55% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +121 · BOS -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 112, Knicks 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 15 and Celtics by 19.
Side by side
| NYK | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | NYK 103 @ BOS 107 | BOS |
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | BOS 106 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | NYK 111 @ BOS 89 | NYK |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | NYK 117 @ BOS 123 | BOS |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | BOS 95 @ NYK 105 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works