NYK
DET
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Knicks +0.2.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pistons 6th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Knicks 15th (14.3).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Knicks 9th (13.7), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 1st (76.9%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 218.2 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · DET n/a | NYK 42% · DET 58% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +137 · DET -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 111, Knicks 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 14 and Pistons by 19.
Side by side
| NYK | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-27 | DET 97 @ NYK 111 | NYK |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | DET 126 @ NYK 111 | DET |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | NYK 80 @ DET 118 | DET |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | NYK 90 @ DET 121 | DET |
| 2025-05-01 | Playoffs | NYK 116 @ DET 113 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works