NYK
GSW
New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Knicks cross 3 time zones.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Knicks 15th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 226 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · GSW n/a | NYK 57% · GSW 42% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -135 · GSW +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 112, Knicks 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 19 and Warriors by 15.
Side by side
| NYK | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | GSW 107 @ NYK 110 | NYK |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | NYK 113 @ GSW 126 | GSW |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | NYK 94 @ GSW 97 | GSW |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | GSW 114 @ NYK 102 | GSW |
| 2024-03-18 | 2023-24 | NYK 119 @ GSW 112 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works