NYK
IND
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.9 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · IND n/a | NYK 65% · IND 35% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -182 · IND +182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 111, Knicks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 22 and Pacers by 12.
Side by side
| NYK | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | IND 110 @ NYK 136 | NYK |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | NYK 101 @ IND 92 | NYK |
| 2026-02-10 | 2025-26 | IND 137 @ NYK 134 | IND |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | NYK 114 @ IND 113 | NYK |
| 2025-05-31 | Playoffs | NYK 108 @ IND 125 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works