NYK
LAL
New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Knicks +0.2.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Knicks defense that ranks 7th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Knicks 25th (0.19).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,490 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.3 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · LAL n/a | NYK 45% · LAL 55% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +123 · LAL -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 113, Knicks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 15 and Lakers by 18.
Side by side
| NYK | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | NYK 97 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | LAL 100 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | NYK 109 @ LAL 113 | LAL |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | LAL 128 @ NYK 112 | LAL |
| 2024-02-03 | 2023-24 | LAL 113 @ NYK 105 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works