NYK
MEM
New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Knicks +0.2.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.4 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · MEM n/a | NYK 54% · MEM 46% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -115 · MEM +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 112, Knicks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 18 and Grizzlies by 16.
Side by side
| NYK | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | NYK 130 @ MEM 119 | NYK |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | MEM 120 @ NYK 133 | NYK |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | NYK 114 @ MEM 113 | NYK |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | MEM 106 @ NYK 143 | NYK |
| 2024-02-06 | 2023-24 | MEM 113 @ NYK 123 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works