NYK

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

MIA

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

61% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

NYK 61%MIA 39%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Simulation: the Knicks win 6,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Heat -7.8.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Heat 12th (+1.6).
The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 3,900 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 13 or more.
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Heat 16th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -4
Total points	n/a	229.9
Win chance	NYK n/a · MIA n/a	NYK 61% · MIA 39%
Fair moneyline		NYK -156 · MIA +156

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Heat 113, Knicks 117.
80% of simulations land between Knicks by 21 and Heat by 13.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

NYK		MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
+7.6 3	Net rating	+1.6 12
116.4 3	Offensive rating	113.4 11
108.7 4	Defensive rating	111.8 14
55.6% 5	Effective FG%	54.1% 17
53.3% 7	Opponent eFG%	54.2% 14
13.7 9	Turnovers per 100	12.8 4
29.3% 5	Offensive rebound %	25.2% 16
37.5% 3	3-point %	35.9% 12
99.8 28	Pace	106.3 1

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-21	2025-26	MIA 125 @ NYK 132	NYK
2025-11-17	2025-26	NYK 113 @ MIA 115	MIA
2025-11-14	2025-26	MIA 132 @ NYK 140	NYK
2025-10-26	2025-26	NYK 107 @ MIA 115	MIA
2025-03-17	2024-25	MIA 95 @ NYK 116	NYK

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Knicks beat the Heat 132-125 at home (2025-12-21). The difference: they shot 67% effective field goal percentage to 57% and they made 20 threes to 17, a 9-point swing. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 47 points.