NYK
MIN
New York Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Knicks +0.2.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Timberwolves 15th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Strength: the Timberwolves rank 5th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (52.8%).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,350 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 15 or more.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Timberwolves defense that ranks 8th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.9 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · MIN n/a | NYK 44% · MIN 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +130 · MIN -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 114, Knicks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 15 and Timberwolves by 19.
Side by side
| NYK | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | NYK 104 @ MIN 115 | MIN |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | MIN 114 @ NYK 137 | NYK |
| 2025-01-17 | 2024-25 | MIN 116 @ NYK 99 | MIN |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-25 | NYK 133 @ MIN 107 | NYK |
| 2024-01-01 | 2023-24 | MIN 106 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works