NYK
OKC
New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Knicks 15th (14.3).
- History: the Thunder won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Knicks 9th (13.7).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,350 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 5th (29.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 1st (76.9%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 219.8 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · OKC n/a | NYK 44% · OKC 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +130 · OKC -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 111, Knicks 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 14 and Thunder by 19.
Side by side
| NYK | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | NYK 100 @ OKC 111 | OKC |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | OKC 103 @ NYK 100 | OKC |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | OKC 126 @ NYK 101 | OKC |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | NYK 107 @ OKC 117 | OKC |
| 2024-03-31 | 2023-24 | OKC 113 @ NYK 112 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works