NYK

New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ORL

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

64% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

NYK 64%ORL 36%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Magic -12.5.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Magic 17th (-0.2).
Simulation: the Knicks win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Magic 29th (34.0%).

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Magic win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Knicks 25th (0.19).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 12 or more.
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -4.5
Total points	n/a	223.9
Win chance	NYK n/a · ORL n/a	NYK 64% · ORL 36%
Fair moneyline		NYK -178 · ORL +178

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Magic 110, Knicks 115.
80% of simulations land between Knicks by 22 and Magic by 12.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

NYK		ORL
2-3	Record	1-3
+7.6 3	Net rating	-0.2 17
116.4 3	Offensive rating	110.4 22
108.7 4	Defensive rating	110.6 9
55.6% 5	Effective FG%	52.4% 28
53.3% 7	Opponent eFG%	53.9% 9
13.7 9	Turnovers per 100	13.9 11
29.3% 5	Offensive rebound %	24.8% 19
37.5% 3	3-point %	34.0% 29
99.8 28	Pace	103.1 12

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-25	2026-27	ORL 111 @ NYK 102	ORL
2025-12-13	2025-26	NYK 132 @ ORL 120	NYK
2025-12-07	2025-26	ORL 100 @ NYK 106	NYK
2025-11-22	2025-26	NYK 121 @ ORL 133	ORL
2025-11-12	2025-26	ORL 124 @ NYK 107	ORL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

ORL

Paolo Banchero F

22.6 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.3 ast in 35 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

ORL

Franz Wagner F

19.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.6 ast in 30.2 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

ORL

Desmond Bane G

19.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 33.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Magic beat the Knicks 111-102 on the road (2026-10-25). The difference: they made 18 threes to 9, a 27-point swing and they shot 53% effective field goal percentage to 46%.