NYK
PHX
New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Knicks cross 2 time zones.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Knicks 15th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.5 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · PHX n/a | NYK 62% · PHX 38% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -162 · PHX +162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 109, Knicks 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 21 and Suns by 13.
Side by side
| NYK | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-2 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | PHX 106 @ NYK 99 | PHX |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | NYK 107 @ PHX 112 | PHX |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | PHX 98 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | NYK 138 @ PHX 122 | NYK |
| 2023-12-15 | 2023-24 | NYK 139 @ PHX 122 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works