NYK
SAS
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Knicks +0.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Spurs 9th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 3,880 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 13 or more.
- History: the Knicks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Knicks 15th (14.3), Spurs 25th (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 223 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · SAS n/a | NYK 39% · SAS 61% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +158 · SAS -158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 114, Knicks 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 13 and Spurs by 21.
Side by side
| NYK | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Playoffs | NYK 94 @ SAS 90 | NYK |
| 2026-06-10 | Playoffs | SAS 106 @ NYK 107 | NYK |
| 2026-06-08 | Playoffs | SAS 115 @ NYK 111 | SAS |
| 2026-06-05 | Playoffs | NYK 105 @ SAS 104 | NYK |
| 2026-06-03 | Playoffs | NYK 105 @ SAS 95 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works