NYK
TOR
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Knicks +0.2.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Knicks 15th (14.3).
- Strength: the Raptors rank 3rd of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (16.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,640 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 1st (76.9%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.6 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · TOR n/a | NYK 46% · TOR 54% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK +115 · TOR -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 112, Knicks 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 15 and Raptors by 18.
Side by side
| NYK | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | TOR 95 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | NYK 111 @ TOR 95 | NYK |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | NYK 119 @ TOR 92 | NYK |
| 2025-12-09 | 2025-26 | NYK 117 @ TOR 101 | NYK |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | TOR 94 @ NYK 116 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works