NYK
WAS
New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 7,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,930 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · WAS n/a | NYK 71% · WAS 29% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -241 · WAS +241 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 110, Knicks 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 23 and Wizards by 10.
Side by side
| NYK | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | WAS 113 @ NYK 145 | NYK |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | NYK 132 @ WAS 101 | NYK |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | WAS 102 @ NYK 119 | NYK |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | WAS 103 @ NYK 122 | NYK |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | NYK 126 @ WAS 106 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works