OKC
ATL
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Hawks 14th (+1.3).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,590 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hawks 20th (24.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.2 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · ATL n/a | OKC 54% · ATL 46% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC -118 · ATL +118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 114, Thunder 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 18 and Hawks by 15.
Side by side
| OKC | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | ATL 129 @ OKC 140 | OKC |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | OKC 117 @ ATL 100 | OKC |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | OKC 135 @ ATL 119 | OKC |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024-25 | ATL 104 @ OKC 128 | OKC |
| 2024-01-03 | 2023-24 | OKC 138 @ ATL 141 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works