OKC
BOS
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 6th (29.0%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 4th (75.9%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Strength: the Celtics rank 1st of 30 in points allowed per game (107.1).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 16 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Thunder 14th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.5 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · BOS n/a | OKC 48% · BOS 52% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +108 · BOS -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 112, Thunder 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 16 and Celtics by 17.
Side by side
| OKC | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | OKC 109 @ BOS 119 | BOS |
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | BOS 102 @ OKC 104 | OKC |
| 2025-03-12 | 2024-25 | OKC 118 @ BOS 112 | OKC |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024-25 | BOS 92 @ OKC 105 | OKC |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | OKC 100 @ BOS 135 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works