OKC
CLE
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Cavaliers 10th (+2.7).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,410 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · CLE n/a | OKC 56% · CLE 44% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC -127 · CLE +127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 113, Thunder 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 19 and Cavaliers by 15.
Side by side
| OKC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ OKC 121 | OKC |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | OKC 136 @ CLE 104 | OKC |
| 2025-01-16 | 2024-25 | CLE 114 @ OKC 134 | OKC |
| 2025-01-08 | 2024-25 | OKC 122 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2023-11-08 | 2023-24 | CLE 120 @ OKC 128 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works