OKC
DAL
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,070 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · DAL n/a | OKC 59% · DAL 41% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC -146 · DAL +146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 112, Thunder 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 20 and Mavericks by 14.
Side by side
| OKC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | OKC 96 @ DAL 120 | DAL |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | OKC 100 @ DAL 87 | OKC |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ OKC 132 | OKC |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | OKC 101 @ DAL 94 | OKC |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | DAL 121 @ OKC 115 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works