OKC
DET
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Strength: the Pistons rank 1st of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (51.4%).
- Strength: the Pistons rank 2nd of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (106.2).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 219.3 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · DET n/a | OKC 44% · DET 56% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +126 · DET -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 111, Thunder 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 15 and Pistons by 19.
Side by side
| OKC | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | DET 110 @ OKC 114 | OKC |
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ DET 124 | DET |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | DET 103 @ OKC 119 | OKC |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | OKC 113 @ DET 107 | OKC |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023-24 | OKC 104 @ DET 120 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works