OKC
LAC
Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Thunder cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.3 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · LAC n/a | OKC 59% · LAC 41% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC -143 · LAC +143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 109, Thunder 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 20 and Clippers by 14.
Side by side
| OKC | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | LAC 101 @ OKC 108 | OKC |
| 2026-04-08 | 2025-26 | OKC 128 @ LAC 110 | OKC |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | LAC 101 @ OKC 122 | OKC |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-26 | OKC 126 @ LAC 107 | OKC |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | OKC 103 @ LAC 101 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works