OKC
LAL
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Thunder +3.6.
- Body clock: the Thunder cross 2 time zones.
- Strength: the Lakers rank 1st of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (57.2%).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · LAL n/a | OKC 46% · LAL 54% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +115 · LAL -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 114, Thunder 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 16 and Lakers by 18.
Side by side
| OKC | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Playoffs | OKC 115 @ LAL 110 | OKC |
| 2026-05-09 | Playoffs | OKC 131 @ LAL 108 | OKC |
| 2026-05-07 | Playoffs | LAL 107 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2026-05-05 | Playoffs | LAL 90 @ OKC 108 | OKC |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | OKC 123 @ LAL 87 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works